MPI-DS Seminar: Navigating Epidemics: Accuracy and Utility of Infectious Disease Models

During an epidemic, mathematical models can be a tool to support decision making, for example to allocate resources or choose public health interventions. This talk will discuss a few ways in which models have been used to inform the response to recent infectious disease outbreaks, drawing from examples of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. It will particularly focus on evaluating the utility and accuracy of mathematical models when used in order to make statements about the future course of an epidemic. These examples will serve to highlight some of the ongoing challenges in using models of outbreaks in real time and suggest ways in which these might be addressed in the future.